The Gay Marriage Office Pool, Part Two

by Michael A. Jones

Published April 05, 2009 @ 03:30PM PT

In the waning weeks of 2008, we wrote a post called "The Gay Marriage Office Pool," which predicted the states in 2009 most likely to legalize same-sex marriage.  Well, as a huge mea culpa, let me apologize to the entire state of Iowa for not including them on that list.  It all goes to show that equal rights can sometimes be surprising, and that sometimes legislators and/or judges get it right.  I don't know about you all, but I'm still on high from the Friday ruling in Iowa.

Given that Iowa is now the third state in the country to recognize same-sex marriage, we're here wondering "Who will be next?"  Below are five states that we think might be next to join the same-sex marriage club, based on the first three months of news in 2009.

5. District of Columbia:  Yup, the first entry on our list isn't even a state.  But the folks who proclaim "taxation without representation" may be about to declare marriage equality for all.  Organizers have already started a site (dcformarriage.blogspot.com), and held a kick-off event last week for their "I Do in D.C." campaign, which collected more than 600 signatures of D.C. residents who support same-sex marriage.  Couple that with the fact that, according to the Washington Blade, not only does the mayor (Adrian Fenty) support same-sex marriage, but at least 10 out of the 13 city councilors support marriage equality too.  Openly gay City Councilor David Catania has promised to introduce a marriage equality bill later in 2009.  So while the federal government may still be on the dark side of history when it comes to recognizing equal marriage rights for all, the city that the federal government calls home may just take a step forward for civil rights.

4. California: While most are under the impression that the California Supreme Court will uphold the validity of Proposition 8, miracles do happen.  And should the Court decide to reject Prop 8 and follow their 2008 ruling that legalized same-sex marriage (they have until early June to make their ruling), the Court would be erring on the side of equal rights.  As Marc Solomon, the new Marriage Director at Equality California put it: "The Iowa Supreme Court's ruling protects the state Constitution's promise of equality for all Iowans, including same-sex couples, and ultimately it helps advance the democratic principles of freedom and equality for all Americans...The Iowa Court's decision should send a strong message to the California Supreme Court that discrimination should not be enshrined in the California Constitution whose purpose it is to protect the freedoms of all Californians."

3. New York: Despite the fact that marriage equality has hit a preponderous obstacle in the New York State Senate, we're still holding out hope for the Empire State.  Why?  Well, never underestimate the importance of Chuck Schumer. His recent public show of support for same-sex marriage means that both U.S. Senators from New York support marriage equality (Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand pledged her support shortly after she was appointed by Gov. David Paterson).  And New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has renewed his call for marriage equality, saying that he would be glad to tesitfy in the state legislature for marriage equality.  We know that the State Senate is still a vote or two short of passing marriage equality legislation, but with all of this public support in place from several high-ranking officials, we have to keep New York on the list.

2. Vermont: It all comes down to the State House in Vermont.  Despite the fact that both the State Senate and the State House have passed marriage equality legislation overwhelmingly, the Governor (Jim Douglas) is going to veto it...most likely tomorrow (Monday).  The House can override his veto with a two-thirds majority, but they are a few votes short. Both sides are working the lobbying scene this weekend, as LGBT rights activists need about a half dozen more votes.  If they get it, Vermont will become the fourth state to recognize marriage equality, and the first to do so via the legislative process.

1. Maine: And the new number one on our list goes to Maine.  This blog has long been a fan of Equality Maine.  They may just be doing some of the best grassroots work out there on the issue of marriage equality.  On Election Day 2008, they nabbed 30,000 signatures of people who support marriage equality.  They've also worked closely to build religious coalitions to support marriage equality.  And now, on April 24 of this year, they'll be out in full force during a public hearing in Augusta, where legislators will hear from same-sex marriage advocates.  A marriage equality bill already introduced has over 60 co-sponsors in the state legislature.  It's also unclear where the governor will fall on the issue, but one thing seems clear: Maine's outgoing Governor John Baldacci is seemingly less hostile on the issue than his governor counterparts in Vermont and New Hampshire.  He's on record opposing same-sex marriage from a few years ago, but as recently as January he's stated that "This debate is extremely personal for many people, and it's an issue that I struggle with trying to find the best path forward...I'm not prepared to say I support gay marriage today, but I will consider what I hear as the Legislature works to find the best way to address discrimination."  That sounds like a Governor that can be lobbied, or rather, convinced that same-sex marriage is in the best interest of civil rights.  We'll wait and see how the public hearing on April 24 shapes up, and where Baldacci falls on the issue.

(*Note: I recognize that some potential states are left off this list, most notably Rhode Island, New Jersey and New Hampshire.  I think those states are close, and have the public support to prove it.  But I think they are just an inch or two short on the political spectrum for us to see any chance of same-sex marriage this year.  Know of other states?  I'd love to hear thoughts.)

(Photo courtesy of A Real Horrorshow Devotchka.)