The Bradley Effect on Gay Marriage Polls

Published November 04, 2009 @ 08:57AM PT

Voting Booth Polling same-sex marriage is always tricky. Many activists are feeling a little burned this morning after a stinging defeat in Maine that rescinded marriage rights for same-sex couples. In the lead up to the vote, polls showed everything from a tied race to marriage equality supporters leading. It's just a shame that the end results didn't match up with some of the pre-election polls.

Marriage equality lost in Maine by about four percent. As Nate Silver over at FiveThirtyEight writes, that final total is not reflective of where most activists thought the race was heading. Silver himself said that he thought there was only a 30 percent chance of marriage equality failing in Maine. So what went wrong?

We'll know more in the coming days, but at first glance it appears that there could be a Bradley Effect at play in the polling.

The Bradley Effect was a term coined after the 1982 California Governor's race where an African-American candidate named Tom Bradley lost to a white candidate, despite being ahead in most polls. It's a term that generally refers to the fact that in polling questions, people will typically answer how they think the pollster or society wants them to answer, rather than how they really feel (and more importantly, how they intend to vote).

In the case of marriage equality, it could be that people don't want to be labeled as homophobic or bigoted, so they say to pollsters that they support marriage equality. But then when it comes time to vote, they actually cast a contrary ballot.

Was a Bradley Effect at play in Maine? It's too early to tell. And as Nate Silver notes, there could be many more issues surrounding the marriage equality vote in Maine, from a large rural vs. urban divide, to the fact that in an off-year election more anti-gay folks were motivated to head to the polls.

But it is entirely possible that as activists, we've succeeded in drawing a line in the sand that makes it unpopular for people to say publicly that they don't support marriage rights. Changing their minds once they enter a voting booth, however, is going to take a whole heck of a lot more work.

(Photo courtesy of Muffet's photostream on Flickr.)

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Comments (8)

Mike... it still doesnt take the sting of Maine away. I think we all need time to morn right now before we collect ourselves and prepare for another battle in this endless war.

Posted by Chris Marshall on 11/04/2009 @ 11:31AM PT
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I thank the gay people are going all about trying to get there rights the wrong way. I'm gay myself and I feel if the gay cummunity would pick one day and not goto work and also for one week now spend a dime at the end of a week once the dollars stop flowing we will be offered all the rights we want. The great part about this is anyone can do it for the openly gay's, closets, str8 helpers ect.. SO LET'S PLAN THIS AND MAKE A STAND AND HIT PEOPLE WHERE IT REALLY HURTS THEM IN THERE POCKET. Trust me this will work~

Posted by John Smith on 11/04/2009 @ 01:00PM PT
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It's unfortunate that the referendum which would have given Maine's LGBT community the right of same-sex marriage voted down by the force of intolerance. There were very possibly people who said that they supported same-sex marriage to pollsters and then voted yes on 1, well those people are cowards. Same-sex marriage doesn't involve people who don't like that right, but people who are committed to being with each other for life and with the benefits that come with it.

Posted by Edwin Bonilla on 11/04/2009 @ 11:49AM PT
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I don't understand this Bradley effect. Why would people be afraid of being called homophobic when they ARE homophobic?

Posted by Luella - on 11/04/2009 @ 11:52AM PT
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Hey Luella, I think it's that they don't want to be perceived to be homophobic, but deep down they really don't like the idea of gays and lesbians getting married. It's all messed up, but it does make polling really hard on this issue, I think.

Posted by Michael Jones on 11/04/2009 @ 12:38PM PT
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Being united in support for our rights would be the best way for us to win at the ballot. Continue writing legislators,Holding marches and rallies is one way.Being united and not giving up is the only way we can change peoples hearts and minds.

Posted by Martin Martinez on 11/05/2009 @ 08:18AM PT
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People, the solution is simple. The "gay community" needs to actually become a community, routinely taking to the streets in large numbers, and I'm not just talking about silly little peaceful protests, like the NEM. I'm sorry but that did nothing. It's time be out of control, it's time for riots. Organize thousands upon thousands of us and just storm city hall at night, force ourselves in, steal marriage licenses. These are the things that would get attention. Not ridiculous "pretty please give me my rights, Mr. President" NEMs that got about 30 secs on the news. The truth is no politician actually takes us seriously, because we're the most laughably complacent oppressed minority ever. Rioting and civil disobedience is the answer. Remember San Francisco last year after Prop 8? Now, THAT was a real protest. Let it be known that we will not tolerate our rights being put up to a public vote, that we don't care what people think of us anymore, and that if they're uncomfortable with us being completely equal to heterosexuals in every way under law, well, they're just going ot have to deal with it. Maine was the last straw, it's time to break some bones.

Posted by Kevin K on 11/07/2009 @ 05:14PM PT
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As someone who was in the thick of the protests following Prop 8's passage last year, and as someone who is also a believer in the importance of passion and anger when it's honest and appropriate, I have to ask what the goal is here, Kevin. Yes, it's time to stop accepting compromise and start demanding change... but we're doing that. And when there's a focus or inspiration for anger, we're expressing that, too. But the angry protests last year didn't accomplish any practical change, did they? They did, however, inspire a whole new crowd of activists, gay and straight and mostly young, who were motivated to go march in DC last month and who continue to speak out online and in public about the need for change.

The mistake made by the older, mainstream LGBT community is increasingly that they want to control how people fight and feel. Our strength is that A) we're right, and our opposition is wrong; and B) our cause inspires support from thoughtful, freedom-minded people of all backgrounds and descriptions, once they're exposed to it and made to think about it for themselves. Let the movement evolve as it will, and let go of preconceived ideas about how change should happen or the timetable it should happen on. We will only know in retrospect why things occurred as they did or what the turning points were.

In the meantime, we can all focus on speaking honestly, reaching out to anyone around who will listen, and living our lives as examples. That's it.

Posted by Cristian Asher on 11/08/2009 @ 03:55PM PT
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Author

Michael is the Communications Director for the Human Rights Program at Harvard Law School, and previously was Communications Director for Pax Christi USA, a progressive Catholic human rights organization.